Comments on: Nine Forecasts for Twenty Oh Nine http://subrataalpha.wordpress.com/2008/12/28/nine-forecasts-for-twenty-oh-nine/ Technology|Life|Humor|Potent Concoction| Fri, 04 Dec 2009 03:11:37 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: subrataalpha http://subrataalpha.wordpress.com/2008/12/28/nine-forecasts-for-twenty-oh-nine/#comment-115 subrataalpha Mon, 12 Jan 2009 05:12:07 +0000 http://subrataalpha.wordpress.com/?p=125#comment-115 Deepesh: A export and commodity centric country like China is bound to suffer. It is very likely that the govt will step up spending (a $586 Bn stimulus package is already out) but unfortunately it cannot continue a forever expanding and accommodating fiscal policy. Something will give. It is easy for analysts to say that China is a great domestic market but its long standing out-bound economic policy will have to stand on its head to be able to exploit internal opportunities. I suspect China will grow at only around 5% this year (I don't know how reliable numbers emanating from a communist state are). Btw, check out the 10 "Black Swan" events put out by Saxo Bank Deepesh: A export and commodity centric country like China is bound to suffer. It is very likely that the govt will step up spending (a $586 Bn stimulus package is already out) but unfortunately it cannot continue a forever expanding and accommodating fiscal policy. Something will give. It is easy for analysts to say that China is a great domestic market but its long standing out-bound economic policy will have to stand on its head to be able to exploit internal opportunities. I suspect China will grow at only around 5% this year (I don’t know how reliable numbers emanating from a communist state are). Btw, check out the 10 “Black Swan” events put out by Saxo Bank

]]> By: Deepesh http://subrataalpha.wordpress.com/2008/12/28/nine-forecasts-for-twenty-oh-nine/#comment-114 Deepesh Sun, 11 Jan 2009 20:44:26 +0000 http://subrataalpha.wordpress.com/?p=125#comment-114 Great insight. What is your take on the BRIC countries financial future for 2009? will china be able to continue the growth story in 2009?. Your thoughts... Great insight. What is your take on the BRIC countries financial future for 2009? will china be able to continue the growth story in 2009?. Your thoughts…

]]> By: subrataalpha http://subrataalpha.wordpress.com/2008/12/28/nine-forecasts-for-twenty-oh-nine/#comment-104 subrataalpha Thu, 01 Jan 2009 15:03:18 +0000 http://subrataalpha.wordpress.com/?p=125#comment-104 Aniruddha: I can only hope that policy makers and entrepreneurs both take cognizance of what has happened - which is also what you refer to - and make a fresh start. Looking back at what happened with Japan in the 1990s, I am not sure if the zero-interest-rate strategy will propel growth. I guess at some point policy makers will have to consider deficit creating strategies as well - either as spenders of last resort or through tax cuts. The thought that keeps me awake at night though is the specter of returning to state directed policies - the India of 1970s. Subrata Aniruddha: I can only hope that policy makers and entrepreneurs both take cognizance of what has happened – which is also what you refer to – and make a fresh start. Looking back at what happened with Japan in the 1990s, I am not sure if the zero-interest-rate strategy will propel growth. I guess at some point policy makers will have to consider deficit creating strategies as well – either as spenders of last resort or through tax cuts. The thought that keeps me awake at night though is the specter of returning to state directed policies – the India of 1970s.

Subrata

]]> By: Aniruddha http://subrataalpha.wordpress.com/2008/12/28/nine-forecasts-for-twenty-oh-nine/#comment-103 Aniruddha Thu, 01 Jan 2009 07:54:31 +0000 http://subrataalpha.wordpress.com/?p=125#comment-103 My views w.r.t - "2009 will be no better than 2008 in terms of financial asset performance......" This is because somewhere both non-govt. (private enterprise) and govt. have failed to deliver - Pvt. Sector - failed to check over-pricing of deliverables as well as consumables (inflation led exuberance as against real growth-led performance, a classic example is of executive compensation) Govts./ Regulators- failed in implementation of regulation or defining policy (with dynamism reflecting the changing realities) - near zero interest rates or equity in home purchases - a large-scale long term rental scheme for housing would have prevented the asset bubble (you can rachet up prices from one retail sale to another, the same is difficult to do with institutional buyers) or the subsequent creation of toxic assets which came about as a result of heavy leveraging of balance sheets. The role of all players is not to provide 'growth at any cost' but 'sustainable growth'. Thats from where, I believe sanity will return to the business of capital allocations, investing for returns and progress. As I write this, I can already see the inclination of various central banks to cut interest rates to 'revive demand' at any cost.....I only hope they learn from the past and don't end up repeating the same mistakes. My views w.r.t -

“2009 will be no better than 2008 in terms of financial asset performance……”

This is because somewhere both non-govt. (private enterprise) and govt. have failed to deliver –

Pvt. Sector – failed to check over-pricing of deliverables as well as consumables (inflation led exuberance as against real growth-led performance, a classic example is of executive compensation)

Govts./ Regulators- failed in implementation of regulation or defining policy (with dynamism reflecting the changing realities) – near zero interest rates or equity in home purchases – a large-scale long term rental scheme for housing would have prevented the asset bubble (you can rachet up prices from one retail sale to another, the same is difficult to do with institutional buyers) or the subsequent creation of toxic assets which came about as a result of heavy leveraging of balance sheets.

The role of all players is not to provide ‘growth at any cost’ but ’sustainable growth’. Thats from where, I believe sanity will return to the business of capital allocations, investing for returns and progress.

As I write this, I can already see the inclination of various central banks to cut interest rates to ‘revive demand’ at any cost…..I only hope they learn from the past and don’t end up repeating the same mistakes.

]]> By: subrataalpha http://subrataalpha.wordpress.com/2008/12/28/nine-forecasts-for-twenty-oh-nine/#comment-102 subrataalpha Mon, 29 Dec 2008 07:13:31 +0000 http://subrataalpha.wordpress.com/?p=125#comment-102 Craig: For a non-American, I have tremendous faith in the people, structure and democracy of the USA. Agreed that a lot of this value has been eroded simply because the nation - and every participant in it, legislators included - lived well beyond means and forgot what an honest day's work looked like. The ongoing crisis is like a cold shower. I foresee it to not only awaken the American citizen but to also rekindle the American spirit, inculcating it with prudence of all kinds - economic, social et al. Given the strong foundation of the country in work ethic, education, entrepreneurship and the fact that its currency will remain the reserve currency of choice for ages to come, I am quite certain the country faces a new dawn and who better than President Elect Obama and his team to take the nation forward. Happy Holidays and see you in the new year! Craig: For a non-American, I have tremendous faith in the people, structure and democracy of the USA. Agreed that a lot of this value has been eroded simply because the nation – and every participant in it, legislators included – lived well beyond means and forgot what an honest day’s work looked like. The ongoing crisis is like a cold shower. I foresee it to not only awaken the American citizen but to also rekindle the American spirit, inculcating it with prudence of all kinds – economic, social et al. Given the strong foundation of the country in work ethic, education, entrepreneurship and the fact that its currency will remain the reserve currency of choice for ages to come, I am quite certain the country faces a new dawn and who better than President Elect Obama and his team to take the nation forward. Happy Holidays and see you in the new year!

]]> By: stratacus http://subrataalpha.wordpress.com/2008/12/28/nine-forecasts-for-twenty-oh-nine/#comment-101 stratacus Sun, 28 Dec 2008 22:17:49 +0000 http://subrataalpha.wordpress.com/?p=125#comment-101 Subrata, you have a fresh insight and nice balance toward twenty 09. Do you think our country will finally see the dawn of a new cabinet that has what it takes to restore the faith of its people that have been battered by hideous insobriety, corruption and deceit? Your thoughts. . . . Stratacus Subrata, you have a fresh insight and nice balance toward twenty 09. Do you think our country will finally see the dawn of a new cabinet that has what it takes to restore the faith of its people that have been battered by hideous insobriety, corruption and deceit? Your thoughts. . . .

Stratacus

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